This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.
Week 9 Results
Analysis: While the humans certainly did better than their previous 2 dismal performances, it was once again not enough to beat the computer. Mediocre days from CEH, Andrews, and the Steelers DST (who somehow didn’t feast on a fourth-string QB) sank us, as did a failed attempt at a sleeper with Shenault. Perhaps it’s bad luck, bad mojo, who knows. But the humans have been failing big time for a month now, and perhaps it’s time to try a new strategy and take a page out of the computer’s apparent playbook.
Results to Date
|Study Lineups (3-5)||Control Lineups (5-3)|
|Best Single Lineup||141.84||151.80|
|Worst Single Lineup||93.94||123.96|
Week 10 Lineups
Study Lineup and Rationale
The humans are going with a slightly different approach with our lineup this week, and one that somewhat aligns with how the computer seems to build its lineup from week to week. Therefore, instead of going through a player by player breakdown, it makes more sense to explain our lineup this week as a whole.
We decided to build around big guns, and make this lineup as top-heavy as reasonably possible. Therefore, we decided to include Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, and Tyler Lockett. These are consistent fantasy performers with very high floors, and in theory, could easily get us to 100 points between the 4 of them. We then snuck in some players we felt were good value plays, including Keelan Cole (who should get plenty of targets when the Jaguars fall behind fast to the Packers), and the Miami DST, who continues to punch well above its weight with consistent turnovers and TDs on that side of the ball. Hopefully, this will be enough to right the ship for us and get us back in the win column.
QB – Joe Burrow ($5,700)
RB – Aaron Jones ($7,100)
RB – Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
WR – Davante Adams ($9,000)
WR – Keelan Cole ($3,400)
WR – Tyler Lockett ($6,500)
FLEX – Devin Singletary ($4,300)
DST – Miami Dolphins DST ($2,800)
A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.
This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Kamara and Adams.
QB – Josh Allen ($7,500) – This one’s going to be an absolute shootout between the Bills and Cardinals. As much as we humans would hate it, there’s a very real possibility that Allen goes off. Nothing we can do about it.
RB – Alvin Kamara ($8,200) – Same as us.
RB – Aaron Jones ($7,100) – The computer has gone with Jones to complete it’s identical top-trio to ours. No matter how big of a game Jones may have now, it won’t help the humans win.
WR – Davante Adams ($9,000) – Same as us.
WR – Danny Amendola ($3,900) – Amendola had a nice game last week, and hauled in 7 catches for 77 yards on 10 targets. But Washington has a sneaky good defense, and Amendola may be an aberration when it comes to low-cost, high-upside WRs this week.
WR – Jakeem Grant ($3,000) – Grant is a mere $3,000 this week, and, along with Amendola and Mike Davis, could very well be the difference makers here (going up against the low-cost plays of Akins, Cole, and Singletary for the humans).
TE – Dallas Goedert ($4,200) – Goedert had only one catch in Week 8, his first game back from injury since late September. The Eagles had the bye last week, giving Goedert time to rest up even more before this Sunday’s matchup with the Giants. But he still could need a few more snaps to shake the rust off, and still plays for as inconsistent of an offense as there is in the NFL.
FLEX – Mike Davis ($4,000) – Despite a tough matchup against Tampa Bay, Davis is an absolute STEAL at $4,000 given that Run-CMC is out yet again with an injury. Hard to hate on this pick.
DST – New Orleans Saints DST ($3,000) – San Francisco is still obliterated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The Saints DST, on paper, is a great value here an will likely see a high ownership percentage in DFS contests.
Will a shift in strategy pay off for the humans? Or will their apparent computer overlords hand them yet another L?
Let’s see what Week 10 has in store.
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Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league owners’ heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.
Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.
Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!
Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.
Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!
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