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The Turf DFS Study: Week 11 Lineups

It’s getting ugly, y’all.

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 11 Lineups


Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 10 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 3-6): Joe Burrow, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Keelan Cole, Tyler Lockett, Jordan Akins, Devin Singletary, Dolphins DST – 124.22 points

The Computer (control lineup, 6-3): Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, Danny Amendola, Jakeem Grant, Dallas Goedert, Mike Davis, Saints DST- 146.26 points

Analysis: We don’t get it. We simply don’t get it. The humans once again get served an L at the hands of the computer. Not only has the computer consistently bested the humans when it comes to the head to head record, the computer has also shown a much more consistent scoring total (the computer’s lineups have only varied by as much as 27.84 points, whereas us humans have a range of nearly 48 points). The computer is more consistent than us, and consistently higher to boot.

The lone bright spot for the humans in Week 10 was nailing Keelan Cole as a sleeper, who cashed in with both a receiving TD and a TD via punt-return. Other than that, a lackluster performance from Devin Singletary hamstrung us from the FLEX spot, and our QB pick (Burrow) got outdueled by the computer’s (Allen). Same shit, different week. The humans have some work to do.


Results to Date

Study Lineups (3-6)Control Lineups (6-3)
Total Points1,102.501,257.14
Average Points/Contest122.50139.68
Best Single Lineup141.84151.80
Worst Single Lineup93.94123.96
Range47.9027.84

Week 10 Lineups

Study Lineup and Rationale

No rationale this week. We don’t even know anymore. We thought we did, but we don’t. Simply put, we can’t beat a computer, we can’t get our lineups anywhere close to the payout line. The humans are shook. So with that, we fling this lineup out into the world and brace for impact. Please, for the love of God, we need a win. Week 11, please be kind.

QB – Alex Smith ($5,300)

RB – Damien Harris ($5,700)

RB – Alvin Kamara ($9,200)

WR – Keenan Allen ($7,400)

WR – Justin Jefferson ($6,000)

WR – Marquez Valdez-Scantling ($4,800)

TE – Richard Rodgers ($3,500)

FLEX – Nyheim Hines ($5,200)

DST – Washington DST ($2,900)


Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Kamara and Allen.

QB – Joe Burrow ($7,500) – The computer is simply toying with us. It sees our QB from last week who underperformed and picks him right in our face in an act of total mockery. Knowing how this study has gone so far, expect 200 yards and 2 TDs from Burrow on Sunday.

RB – Alvin Kamara ($9,200) – Same as us.

RB – Giovanni Bernard ($5,500) – A sensible stack here with Burrow, and another way in which the computer is giving us the finger. Two Bengals players on its roster, knowing full well the Bengals take on the defense the humans had selected (Washington). What a jerk.

WR – Keenan Allen ($7,400) – Same as us.

WR – Michael Thomas ($7,300) – A shaky pick no matter how you slice it. Thomas has not seen much action this season following a length injury, and now has first-time starter Taysum Hill lining up at QB. It’s a pricey risk.

WR – Brandin Cooks ($5,200) – An interesting choice from the computer here, our gut says that this will be a low-scoring affair between Houston and New England. Especially if Stephon Gillmore is back.

TE – Hunter Henry ($4,600) – This is a great value for a guy like Henry, who is a lock for 5-6 targets per game and has a lovely matchup with the wretched Jets.

FLEX – Chris Conley ($3,000) – This isn’t even a sleeper, this is just the computer having to spend its money somehow after it chose another top-heavy lineup. Conley is maybe the 3rd receiving option on a weak Jaguars offense, and they face the undefeated Steelers this week.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals DST ($2,300) – Stacking the Bengals top to bottom apparently. Who are we to judge, though. Perhaps the humans should try winning a week first before criticizing.


How many more beatdowns can the humans take?

They hope to not have to answer that question in Week 11.


Do you know someone who thinks they’re Bill Belichick when it comes to Fantasy Football, but in reality, they’re Lane Kiffin? Let them know! Send them a TurfBurn!

Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league owners’ heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.

Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.

Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!

Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.

Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!

Ryan Kelly lives in Cambridge, MA, a stone's throw away from his beloved Boston teams. When he is not working as an editorial assistant, he is providing commentary on the Boston Red Sox and Boston Bruins for The Turf.

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