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The Turf DFS Study: Week 14 Lineups

At least we didn’t totally suck.

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 14 Lineups

Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 13 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 4-8): Derek Carr, Aaron Jones, Frank Gore, D.K. Metcalf, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman, Jr., Darren Waller, Denzel Mims, Packers DST – 154.84 points

The Computer (control lineup, 8-4): Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, Breshad Perriman, Anthony Firkser, Darnell Mooney, Patriots DST – 173.62 points

Analysis: Let’s start with the bad news first. The humans lost to the computer again. What else is new? The good news, is that us humans had our best week of this study so far, with a solid 154.84-point showing. The Carr/Waller stack was golden, and who knows how much better we could have done had Frank Gore not gotten hurt on his first carry of the ballgame (earning only 0.2 points for the day). The problem here, is that the computer ALSO had its biggest Sunday showing so far, let by the surprisingly red-hot David Montgomery, and a god-tier DST performance from the Patriots against the Chargers. So while our strong outing has us feeling a little better, we still can’t seem to land any punches on this pesky computer.

Results to Date

Study Lineups (4-8)Control Lineups (8-4)
Total Points1,456.721,672.81
Average Points/Contest121.39139.40
Best Single Lineup154.84173.62
Worst Single Lineup70.44114.24

Week 14 Lineups

Study Lineup and Rationale

The core of this lineup is an Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams stack going up against a weak Detroit defense. Very high DFS floor here. As far as the rest of the selections here, it’s hard to say it’s more than a gut feeling at this point (since logic usually tends to fail us). We of course do like the Seahawks DST (or anyone’s, really) against the Jets. And it’s easy to picture Derrick Henry having a bounce-back week following a rather pedestrian outing against Cleveland last Sunday.

QB – Aaron Rodgers ($7,500)

RB – Derrick Henry ($8,700)

RB – David Montgomery ($6,500)

WR – Davante Adams ($9,300)

WR – Collin Johnson ($3,600)

WR – Greg Ward ($3,100)

TE – Logan Thomas ($3,300)

FLEX – Adrian Peterson ($5,000)

DST – Seattle Seahawks DST ($3,000)

Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Adams and Henry.

QB – Aaron Rodgers ($7,500)The computer apparently likes the stack just as much as us.

RB – Derrick Henry ($8,700) – Same as us.

RB – J.D. McKissic ($5,500) – McKissic will either have 13 catches for 70 yards, or 2 catches for 1 yard. Please be the latter.

WR – Davante Adams ($9,300) – Same as us.

WR – D.K. Metcalf ($8,400) – This is like the third week in a row the computer has gone with Metcalf. The humans’ best hope is that the game with the Jets gets out of hand quickly, and does not require the Seahawks to keep chucking the ball downfield all afternoon.

WR – K.J. Hamler ($3,000) – We have DEFINITELY commented previously on the computer’s obsession with receivers who go by initials as their first names.

TE – Cole Kmet ($2,900)– The computer once again goes super cheap at TE. Honestly, this position is basically a DFS black hole for the most part, so anything at all that Kmet can give the computer on Sunday is a bonus at his price tag.

FLEX – Jordan Akins ($2,900) – See above.

DST – Dallas Cowboys DST ($2,400) – Who is playing QB for the Bengals, again?

This is normally where we try to build suspense by saying something like “What will happen this week?” But there’s only one question left to ask by now: “How many points will the humans lose by?”

It’s Week 14. Let’s find out.

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Ryan Kelly lives in Cambridge, MA, a stone's throw away from his beloved Boston teams. When he is not working as an editorial assistant, he is providing commentary on the Boston Red Sox and Boston Bruins for The Turf.

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