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The Turf DFS Study: Week 15 Lineups

We had our best week of the season. Unfortunately, so did the computer.

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 15 Lineups

Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 14 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 4-9): Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Davante Adams, Collin Johnson, Greg Ward, Logan Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Seattle Seahawks DST 160.70 points

The Computer (control lineup, 9-4):

Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, J.D. McKissic, Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, K.J Hamler, Cole Kmet, Jordan Akins, Dallas Cowboys DST – 180.00 points

Analysis: If we scored 160+ points, and still lost then there’s really nothing more we can do except tip our caps and call the computer our daddy. In a week where we have our best week, the computer also hits their season-high. Unreal. This came down to secondary players, and the computer’s gambles paid off big. Hamler and Kmet torched Ward and Thomas, and that was the difference. Nothing we could have done.

Results to Date

Study Lineups (4-9)Control Lineups (9-4)
Total Points1,617.421,852.81
Average Points/Contest124.42142.52
Best Single Lineup160.70180.00
Worst Single Lineup70.44114.24

Week 15 Lineups

Study Lineup and Rationale

The core of this lineup is a Jalen Hurts/Jalen Reagor stack (LOL) going up against a faltering Arizona defense. Very high DFS floor here. As far as the rest of the selections here, it’s hard to say it’s more than a gut feeling at this point (since logic usually tends to fail us). We of course do like the Rams DST (or anyone’s, really) against the Jets. And it’s easy to picture Derrick Henry having a big week…yet again…against a rather pedestrian Lions defense.

QB – Jalen Hurts ($5,900)

RB – J.K. Dobbins ($5,900)

RB – Derrick Henry ($9,500)

WR – Calvin Ridley ($8,200)

WR – Michael Gallup ($3,500)

WR – Jalen Reagor ($4,400)

TE – Jared Cook ($3,400)

FLEX – Leonard Fournette ($4,500)

DST – Los Angeles Rams DST ($4,500)

Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Henry and Ridley.

QB – Patrick Mahomes ($7,900)I mean, if you’ve got the money for the it, always go with the best, right?

RB – Derrick Henry ($8,700) – Same as us.

RB – Alvin Kamara ($7,400) – Kamara is coming off another monster 20+ point performance and it’s likely he’ll do that again. Especially considering that Drew Brees will be back in action for the Saints, look to Kamara to be his lifeline.

WR – Calvin Ridley ($8,200) – Same as us.

WR – Michael Gallup ($3,500) – Well, well, well… someone’s stealing our picks.

WR – Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200) – Once again leaning into the Saints/Chiefs game, but this one’s a head-scratcher. Sanders is a solid option in deeper fantasy leagues, but within the DFS realm he’s a bit of a reach. However, the computer tends to be right on these calls, so who are we to judge.

TE – Cole Kmet ($3,000)– A familiar face from last week, the computer seems to be hoping lightning strikes twice.

FLEX – Tre-Quan Smith ($3,200) – ANOTHER. NEW ORLEANS. SAINT.

DST – Seattle Seahawks DST ($3,100) – The Seahawks are an interesting pick. While Washington doesn’t have the most dynamic offense, they certainly don’t have the worst. This feels like a “best available option” pick. Can’t wait for them to kill us!

This is normally where we try to build suspense by saying something like “What will happen this week?” But there’s only one question left to ask by now: “How many points will the humans lose by?”

It’s Week 15. Let’s find out.

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Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league owners’ heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.

Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.

Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!

Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.

Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!

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