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The Turf DFS Study: Week 16 Lineups

The humans had their best week of the season by far… and THIS TIME THEY WON. WHAT A WILD, WILD, WEEK? And Week 16 could be crazier!

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 16 Lineups


Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 15 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 5-9): Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry, JK Dobbins, Calvin Ridley, Jalen Reagor, Michael Gallup, Jared Cook, Leonard Fournette, Los Angeles Rams DST 168.32 points

The Computer (control lineup, 9-5): Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Calvin Ridley, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Gallup, Cole Kmet, Tre-Quan Smith, Seattle Seahawks DST – 147.66 points

Analysis: The previous week we scored 160+ points and still lost and there was really nothing more we could do except tip our caps and call the computer our daddy. In a week where we had our best showing, the computer also hit their season-high. Unreal. So we had no other option than to put up another season-best result and reclaim our paternal rights. Did we do anything spectacular? No. Did the Computer’s faith in the New Orleans Saints come back to bite them? Yes.

But the Computer will more than likely be coming for our necks in Week 16. So, if we don’t make it, tell our families we loved them.


Results to Date

Study Lineups (5-9)Control Lineups (9-5)
Total Points1,785.742,000.47
Average Points/Contest127.55142.89
Best Single Lineup168.32180.00
Worst Single Lineup70.44114.24
Range97.8865.76

Week 16 Lineups


Study Lineup and Rationale

The core of this lineup is a Jalen Hurts/Jalen Reagor stack ONCE AGAIN! This time instead of going up against a faltering Arizona defense, the Jalens are taking on Dallas, looking for a… playoff berth? Alright, then. Another very high DFS floor here. As far as the rest of the selections here, it’s hard to say it’s more than a gut feeling at this point (since logic usually tends to fail us). And it’s easy to picture David Montgomery having a big week…yet again…against a Jaguars defense who will be doing their best to help land Trevor Lawrence in the NFL Draft.

QB – Jalen Hurts ($7,900)

RB – Austin Ekeler ($7,600)

RB – David Montgomery ($7,700)

WR – Jamison Crowder ($4,500)

WR – Tee Higgins ($4,700)

WR – Jalen Reagor ($4,600)

TE – Logan Thomas ($4,900)

FLEX – Le’Veon Bell ($5,800)

DST – Washington Football Team DST ($3,000)


Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Ekeler and Mongtomery.

QB – Patrick Mahomes ($8,500)One of our mothers recently referred to Patrick Mahomes as her “fourth son, the one she’s most proud of.” So, the computer seems to be getting very personal after last week’s loss.

RB – Austin Ekeler ($7,600) – Same as us.

RB – David Montgomery ($7,700) – Same as us.

WR – Jamison Crowder ($4,500) – Same as us, although picked separately from us. Apparently, the computer also thinks Crowder’s got a good matchup.

WR – Dinotae Johnson ($6,300) – So, this is an interesting play against a pretty decent Colts secondary. The Steelers need to stop their skid heading into the playoffs. The computer seems to be counting on Johnson being a big part of that.

WR – Cam Sims ($3,300) – If it’s Alex Smith under center for Washington, maybe this a good pick. If it’s Haskins…. maybe not.

TE – Dallas Goedert ($3,600) – The Humans are going with a Hurts/Reagor stack, but the computer thinks there’s more gold in the Hurts/Goedert stack. This feels very anti-Jalen/Jalen and I feel attacked.

FLEX – Melvin Gordon III ($3,200) – An interesting pick. The computer going to dueling backs in Los Angeles is a risky pick, but one with a high upside.

DST – Houston Texans DST ($2,800) -This feels like a “best available option” pick, and it’s a good one. A great matchup against the Bengals and a LOW COST? Solid pick. Pissed we didn’t make it.


This is normally where we try to build suspense by saying something like “What will happen this week?” But there’s only one question left to ask by now: “How many points will the humans lose by?”

It’s Week 16. Let’s find out.


Do you know someone who thinks they’re Bill Belichick when it comes to Fantasy Football, but in reality, they’re Lane Kiffin? Let them know! Send them a TurfBurn!

Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league owners’ heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.

Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.

Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!

Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.

Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!

The Turf is the newest online hub for everything going on in the sports world. That’s right. We. Cover. Everything.

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