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The Turf DFS Study: Week 2 Results, and Week 3 Lineup

It’s Week 3… and the computer didn’t pick Chris Herndon this time

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 2 Results, and Week 3 Lineup

Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 2 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 1-1): Josh Allen, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Adam Thielen, Christian Kirk, Demarcus Robinson, Noah Fant, Joshua Kelly, Rams DST – 126.98 points

The Computer (control lineup, 1-1): Kyler Murray, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Chris Herndon, Kenyan Drake, Buccaneers DST – 126.74 points

Analysis: The Humans win! Was it close? Sure. A whopping 0.24 points was the difference in Week 2. But it’s a victory nonetheless. Take that, robots.

Our lineup this past week was bolstered by another monster performance from DFS-darling Josh Allen. We also got excellent value out of Joshua Kelly and Noah Fant, who combined for 31 DFS points while each coming in below a $5k price tag. The computer lineup was sunk by an injury to Davante Adams, a modest day for Kenyan Drake, and a single catch from its beloved Chris Herndon.

Results to Date

Study Lineups (1-1)Control Lineups (1-1)
Total Points252.78278.54
Average Points/Contest126.39139.27
Best Single Lineup126.98126.74
Worst Single Lineup125.80151.80

Week 3 Lineups

Study Lineup and Rationale

QB – Jared Goff ($5,600) – We think there’s sneaky good value here with Goff, who is coming off an excellent performance last week against Philadelphia. Buffalo had trouble handling Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins in Week 2, and may be a bit of an overrated DST.

RB – Dalvin Cook ($7,600) – If Kirk Cousins struggles once again, expect plenty of touches for Cook (as if he needed any more).

RB – D’Andre Swift ($5,000) – Still riding that wave of picking an RB who doesn’t have a picture uploaded to DraftKings yet.

WR – Amari Cooper ($6,500) – Cooper is good for 7 or 8 targets and faces a Seattle secondary that is softer than most people might realize. Good value here at only $6,500.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) – Rock solid, high-floor DFS powerhouse who gets a tasty matchup with a mediocre Detroit defense.

WR – Calvin Ridley ($7,200) – We are going heavy on the WRs this week, and Ridley may be the biggest of the big-guns. The guy is averaging nearly 35 DFS points per game through 2 weeks, and we aren’t turned off by the matchup with Chicago.

TE – Drew Sample ($3,500) – The second-year pro is now the top TE in Cincinnati following the injury to C.J. Uzomah. At $3,500, he’s a great value-play and has a nice matchup against Philadelphia to boot.

FLEX – Damiere Byrd ($3,000) – Byrd is our sleeper pick this week. He’s establishing a great rapport with Cam Newton, earning looks on third-down, and has the speed to break out for a big play at all times. We like him for a couple big catches on Sunday.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals ($2,600) – Oh yeah, there’s one other wave we are riding. Picking the DST facing the Eagles has worked for us so far, so why stop now?

Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out, and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Cook and Hopkins.

QB – Kyler Murray ($6,800) – A repeat pick at QB for the computer, but we can’t blame it. Kyler is a scoring machine.

RB – Dalvin Cook ($7,600) – Same as us.

RB – Melvin Gordon ($5,800) – Tampa Bay is tough against the run, and Denver will have a backup QB under center. This may be the pick that sinks this lineup.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) – Same as us.

WR – D.J. Moore ($6,100) – Moore is coming off a very nice performance last Sunday. And with the Carolina run-game taking a big hit with the loss of Christain McCaffrey, Moore may have himself another nice week.

WR – K.J. Hamler ($3,000) – The computer seems to have a thing for WRs with initials as first names.

TE – Zach Ertz ($5,100) – The only analysis that matters is that Zach Ertz is not Chris Herndon.

FLEX – Devin Singletary ($4,900) – The Rams have a good defense, and Singletary is often left to evenly split carries with other backs (primarily Zach Moss). Not a lot of upside here.

DST – Philadelphia Eagles DST ($2,800) – We take this pick as a direct challenge, taking the opposing DST to our DST. Message received, computer.

Can the humans even the playing field? Or with the computer give us the business once again? Our randomized-control trial is set for Week 2.

Do you know someone who thinks they’re Bill Belichick when it comes to Fantasy Football, but in reality, they’re Lane Kiffin? Let them know! Send them a TurfBurn!

Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league’s heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.

Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.

Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!

Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.

Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!

Ryan Kelly lives in Cambridge, MA, a stone's throw away from his beloved Boston teams. When he is not working as an editorial assistant, he is providing commentary on the Boston Red Sox and Boston Bruins for The Turf.

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