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The Turf DFS Study: Week 3 Results, and Week 4 Lineup

The computer has made some questionable choices for Week 4.

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The Turf DFS Study: Week 3 Results, and Week 4 Lineup

Estimated Reading Time: 4 Minutes

This article is part of the Turf’s very technical, very smart, and very scientific randomized-control trial pitting us humans against the robots in Daily Fantasy Football. To read the original study protocol, click here.

Week 2 Results

The Turf Team (study lineup, 2-1): Jared Goff, Dalvin Cook, D’Andre Swift, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Drew Sample, Damiere Byrd, Bengals DST – 141.84 points

The Computer (control lineup, 1-2): Kyler Murray, Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon, D.J. Moore, K.J. Hamler, Zach Ertz, Devin Singletary, Eagles DST – 141.50 points

Analysis: The Humans win another barn-burner! Our 0.34-point victory in Week 3 was nearly 50% bigger of a win than Week 2 (0.24 points). That, our friends, is progress. (To be fair, while the humans have a better head-to-head record than the computer, the computer still has us beat in total DFS points accumulated. In the last two weeks, we have only put a 0.58 point dent in the computer’s lead.)

Strong performances from Goff, Ridley, and Cooper set us apart from the computer’s lineup, which was ultimately let down by weak performances from Melvin Gordon (we called this) and D.J. Moore.

Results to Date

Study Lineups (2-1)Control Lineups (1-2)
Total Points394.62420.04
Average Points/Contest131.54140.01
Best Single Lineup141.84151.80
Worst Single Lineup125.80126.74

Week 3 Lineups

Study Lineup and Rationale

QB – Nick Foles ($5,700) – HE’S BACK BABY. Enough. Said.

RB – Joe Mixon ($5,800) – Mixon should have ample opportunities for touches against a Jaguars defense that has trouble stopping just about everybody.

RB – Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) – No picture on DraftKings. It was an obvious choice.

WR – Cooper Kupp ($6,700) – Now that his QB is hitting a bit of a stride, Kupp seems almost cheap at $6,700 facing a weak Giants pass defense.

WR – Tyler Lockett ($7,000) – Speaking of guys who seem surprisingly cheap, Lockett is a must-play this week. He’s a home-run hitter and he’s got the MVP-favorite throwing him the ball.

WR – Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800) – Sanders hasn’t been lighting it up in his stint with the Saints. But look for him to see plenty of action on Sunday with injuries to Michael Thomas and Jared Cook.

TE – Jordan Akins ($3,300) – A bit of a risk, but we like Akins to find the end zone this week against the Vikings.

FLEX – Tyler Boyd ($6,100) – Move over, A.J. Green. Boyd looks to be the alpha dog (or should we say, “cat”) among Bengals receivers. Like Mixon, he’s a good value for his price against given a favorable matchup with Jacksonville.

DST – Baltimore Ravens ($4,000) – The most expensive DST on the board, and rightfully so. They have a tasty matchup with a soft Washington offensive attack that could likely be without their only real weapon in Terry McLaurin.

Control Lineup

A reminder. Our control lineup is created by an online optimizer picked at random. However, due to DraftKings Terms of Service, we have to manually select two players to build around. So, in order to maintain the internal validity of our study, we use the two most expensive players from our lineup to even things out, and ensure the ONLY difference between our lineups are players the computer picked on its own.

This week, the computer optimized its lineup around Kupp and Lockett.

QB – Dak Prescott ($7,200) – Hard not to like this pick, Dak is always a threat for 25-30 DFS points. He’s got a decent matchup with Cleveland on Sunday.

RB – Alvin Kamara ($8,000) – Kamara went off last week, and is likely to do so again given the injuries to Thomas and Cook. This is a smart pick and one that us humans must tip our cap to.

RB – Ronald Jones ($4,700) – Last week, the computer was sunk by a bad choice with Melvin Gordon. And the same thing is going to happen here with Jones. The Chargers have a solid defense, and Jones seems poised to share the workload with Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy.

WR – Tyler Lockett ($7,000) – Same as us.

WR – D.J. Moore ($5,600) – Someone tell Chris Herndon that the computer has a new bestie in D.J. Moore.

WR – Cooper Kupp ($6,700) – Same as us.

TE – Darren Waller ($5,200) – On paper, Waller is a DFS stud. But he disappeared against New England last week, we curious to see if he’s able to bounce back.

FLEX – Logan Thomas ($3,500) – The computer loves to flex cheap TEs. And we don’t really get why.

DST – Miami Dolphins DST ($2,000) – This is a dumb pick and the computer should feel bad about itself. Seattle is scoring at least 40 points.

Can the humans find a way to win by at least a point? Or will the computer take back the reigns?

Do you know someone who thinks they’re Bill Belichick when it comes to Fantasy Football, but in reality, they’re Lane Kiffin? Let them know! Send them a TurfBurn!

Turf Burns are a way to buy real estate in your league’s heads the old fashioned way: The United States Postal Service.

Want to embarrass someone on a weekday? Send them a Turf Burn to their office.

Want their spouse and family to know how badly you annihilated their roster last week? Send them one at home!

Want to send one every week, as your calling card? Guess what?! Turf Burns can do that.

Turf Burns. It’s a touchdown celebration sent through the mail!

Ryan Kelly lives in Cambridge, MA, a stone's throw away from his beloved Boston teams. When he is not working as an editorial assistant, he is providing commentary on the Boston Red Sox and Boston Bruins for The Turf.

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