An excerpt from my new novel “Fear and Loathing in Week 11”.
Hunter Thompson references aside, everyone has a bad week, let’s move on. Here’s what Im looking at this week.
Packers (+2) at Colts
This week I’m looking at value and there is no better value than the Packers getting points. Currently I have the Pack atop the list of 3 NFC teams I like for a slot in the Super Bowl. The line here looks to me like a reaction to the Packers narrow 24-20 victory at home against the lowly Jags. Like I said earlier everyone has a bad week. Green Bay is the best team in the NFC right now, the Colts, while good, are not on the level of the Packers.
Indy boasts a defense that is top 10 against the pass and rush, so this won’t be a walk in the park for Rogers and Co. But I wouldn’t sleep on them being as complacent as they were at the outset of the game against the Jags. I really think they should be favored by 3 here and so should you! I could easily see the Packers as favorites before kickoff.
Falcons (+3.5) at Saints
I’ve faded the Saints quite a bit this year. I never doubted their ability to win games, but I did doubt their ability to win decisively. Through week 8 all of their games were decided within 1 score. All that changed the last 2 weeks and that may change back real soon. The injury to Drew Brees really takes the wind out of the sails of a Saints team that was riding high off of 2 blow out wins. In Week 11 it looks like they will have to rely on Jameis Winston, peppered in with a little more Taysom Hill than normal. That is a huge drop off in production. I think, yet again, the Saints can win this game. But I don’t think they will walk all over Atlanta. For starters Atlanta is no stranger to a dome, they can score, and if Saints fans were hoping ‘Well, we have Kamara still’ the Falcons defense has been very tough against the run this season. I think it possible for the Falcons to win out right. But Im talking the 4.5 points here.
Patriots (-1.5) at Texans
The Pats should be riding a wave of momentum in Week 11 after upsetting the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Houston still has only beaten Jacksonville and it took until the fourth quarter to score against Cleveland last week. Even if the Patriots regress to a pre-Week 10 level of play I think they should still clear this spread and win deep in the heart of Texas.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Ravens
Something is up with Lamar Jackson this year. Either he is injured or he hasn’t progressed as a passer as many thought he would. His deep threat is simple not there. Their run game is on point but if Tennessee can shut that down I think they can do enough to cover this inflated spread. Opponents are 11-5 ATS vs Lamar Jackson as a home favorite. I think the Titans keep this one close.
Heres hoping that the football Gods are kinder to me this week