There are so many great things about Super Bowl Sunday. The food, the friends (in most years), and the football are just the tip of the iceberg.
Not to be overlooked on the greatest day of the year is the betting. You can lay money down on nearly every permutation of the game, including scoring, player stats, and quarter-by-quarter parameters.
You can also choose a bevy of cross-sports wagers, or bet on non-sports related outcomes, like the coin toss, the halftime show, and the commercials.
If you’re interested in all of the sports-related bets you can place, check out the Westgate Las Vegas Sports Book’s official Super Bowl prop bets sheet:
Josh Hansen and I each picked five prop bets for this year’s game, and broke down how we think they will end up and why.
Craig Kaufman’s Prop Bets
1. Most Valuable Player
Here are the odds on each player to win MVP:
Patrick Mahomes (-120)
Tom Brady (+200)
Travis Kelce (+1000)
Tyreek Hill (+1000)
Leonard Fournette (+2500)
Mike Evans (+2800)
Chris Godwin (+3000)
Tyrann Mathieu (+3000)
Devin White (+3000)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3500)
Shaquil Barrett (+4500)
Mecole Hardman (+5000)
Antonio Brown (+5500)
Ronald Jones (+5500)
Darrel Williams (+6600)
Sammy Watkins (+6600)
Chris Jones (+6600)
Frank Clark (+6600)
Cameron Brate (+6600)
Willie Gay (+6600)
Scotty Miller (+6600)
Rob Gronkowski (+6600)
Look, if you want to get fancy here, feel free, but it’s your money you are throwing away. The Super Bowl MVP voters (since 2001, 20% by fan vote and 80% by a panel of 16 writers and broadcasters) love quarterbacks. It takes an otherworldly performance by a non-quarterback to win the MVP award.
QB’s have won three of the last four MVP’s, including Patrick Mahomes last year and Tom Brady in 2017.
No tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP, though if anyone could do it, Travis Kelce would be a pretty good bet. Don’t bother betting on Fournette, RoJo, or CEH, either. No running back has won the award since Terrell Davis in 1998.
If you think Kansas City is going to win the game, you should pick Mahomes, or MAYBE Tyreek Hill. If you think Tampa is going to win, you should pick Brady.
The Turf’s Pick: Tom Brady (+200)
Honestly, I think the NFL is going to do anything in its power to give Brady this award. If Tampa Bay wins, it’s almost a given, but if he plays well, they may even try to give it to him in defeat. If so, Brady would join linebacker Chuck Howley (Super Bowl V, 1971) as the only MVP from a losing team.
2. Gatorade Color
This is one of the classic Super Bowl prop bets, but there really is no good way to predict what color is going to be dumped on the winning coach. Over the past 20 years, orange has won five times, including last season with the Chiefs. Is there any significance to that? Will the Chiefs go orange again this year as a superstition?
From 2005-2008, there were four straight years of clear/water dumped on the winning coach.
Red at +200 seems like an odd bet, considering there hasn’t been a red Gatorade dump in the past 20 years.
And in case you weren’t sure how you felt about Belichick, the Patriots coach has avoided being doused with Gatorade on three occasions. Because of course he did.
The Turf’s Pick: Purple (+800)
It’s true, there have only been two purple Gatorade drops in the past 20 years. But one of them came in 2003. The winner that year? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
3. Coin Toss
Over the past 54 Super Bowls, tails has a 29-25 edge, including five of the past seven years. Tails was flipped last year, and four straight times between Super Bowl XLVIII and Super Bowl LI.
Lately, it has not been good luck to win the coin toss. For the past six years, the team that won the coin toss has gone on to lose the Super Bowl. The last team to win the coin toss and the Super Bowl was Seattle, who beat Denver in 2014.
The Turf’s Pick: Tails
“Tails never fails.”
Ever since Randy Moss said it, I always pick tails. And I would say it’s worked out more than half the time.
4. Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts – 41.5
This is a pretty big number for passing attempts, but it is very reasonable for Mahomes.
Mahomes attempted 42 or more passes in nine games this season, and the Chiefs were 8-1 in those games. That includes Week 12’s 27-24 win over Tampa Bay, in which Mahomes went 37-49 for 462 yards and three touchdowns.
While the two teams have strong defenses, I think this game could become a shootout between Mahomes and Brady, and the Chiefs clearly have no problem letting their QB air it out and try to outpace the opponent.
It is worth noting that Mahomes has not thrown more than 42 attempts in any of the 7 playoff games he has appeared in. His highest total, 42, was in last year’s Super Bowl win over San Francisco.
The Turf’s Pick: Over
Something tells me he gets there, but just barely. I think it will be anxious moments towards the end of the game either way on this one, and I’d rather be rooting for him to throw than against it.
5. Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer: Over/Under 24.5
Here are the players most likely to score that first touchdown, and the categories they fall into:
Le’Veon Bell (26), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25), Darrel Williams (31), Travis Kelce (87), Tyrann Mathieu (32), Leonard Fournette (28), Ronald Jones II (27), Antonio Brown (81), Rob Gronkowski (87), Cameron Brate (84)
Patrick Mahomes (15), Tyreek Hill (10), Mecole Hardman (17), Tom Brady (12), Mike Evans (13), Chris Godwin (14), Scotty Miller (10)
The Turf’s Pick: Under
I feel like the Bucs score first, and I think that means through Evans or Godwin. I also don’t rule out the fact that Tampa Bay gets down to the one yard line and Brady QB sneaks it for the first score of the game. Seems like something that would happen so they can start the broadcast talking about how great Brady is.
Josh Hansen’s Prop Bets
1. Player To Score First Touchdown
Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (7-1)
Mike Evans, Field (All Other Players) (10-1)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette (12-1)
Antonio Brown (14-1)
Sammy Watkins, Darrel Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Rob Gronkowski (16-1)
Mecole Hardman, Ronald Jones II (18-1)
Cameron Brate (20-1)
DeMarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, Scotty Miller (25-1)
Tom Brady (30-1)
No Touchdown Scored (500-1)
When organizing my Super Bowl Prop bets I like to diversify. I want action throughout the game. The first TD scored is always a staple of this equation. Immediate rush. I also like to go big on this one. A running back on either side, a TE like Kelce, all seem like the most logical picks but their payout reflects this. The pick here is not based on hard science, more pseudoscience, like most of my gambling career. It is based on the fact that Patrick Mahomes did it last year and the amount of fun I had watching this bet come to fruition means it will be played every year he plays in this game. Plus, he did it last year. He’s a vet at this point. Should be even quicker this time around.
The Turf’s Pick: Patrick Mahomes +1600 (this is a non passing score)
2. First Half Score
Last year, while in Philly, I was cashing my bets for the evening the night before the big game. While in line, I began chatting with a very inebriated fella who would not stop going on about the halftime score being tied prop. I had no choice but to bet it. What do you know, it hit, +850. I will never not play this again. Especially since the price is even better! +900? All day, every day.
The Turf’s Pick: 1st Half Ends In A Tie +900
3. Longest FG Made – O/U 46.5 Yards
All the hype is on these two quarterbacks, and rightfully so. They are both beyond capable of airing it out and putting up gaudy numbers. Whenever something feels like a forgone conclusion in respect to gambling, I like to dip my toe into the opposite. Buckle up for some exciting special teams play! A 47-yard FG doesn’t seem out of the question. Butker is as good as they come, and I like the idea of him getting at least one shot at this.
I’ll take him to convert every time you let me. Also, Succop is no slouch. Love this one.
The Turf’s Pick: Over 46.5 yard field goal made
4. Will Tom Brady Score A Touchdown (non passing)
This one is pretty simple. If the Bucs get to the goal line, no one is better than Brady when it comes to sneaking it in. How many times have we seen that ancient bastard forgo the easy RB TD instead and take it for himself like a big dumb glory hog? My money is, and always will be, on Tom Brady’s ego. Book it.
The Turf’s Pick: Yes (+400)
5. Will Either Team Score 4 Straight Times?
This prop may sound crazy. I get that 4 scores seem like a lot, but with these two offenses, I believe it is possible. It also is not just touchdowns. Field Goals and the ever elusive safety also play here. Tell me you can’t envision Mahomes marching down the field over and over with little to no adversity. It pays pretty well too. That combination means it’s a winner and going in my plays. Go yes.
The Turf’s Pick: Yes (+240)
The List Goes On…
There are so many prop bets that we couldn’t get to in this article. What will the outcome of the first coach’s challenge be? Who will the MVP refer to first in their acceptance speech? Will The Weeknd be wearing sunglasses when he comes out for the halftime show? How many commercials will show someone wearing a mask?
My favorite way to get the most out of these prop bets is to download a printable scorecard (or create your own) and play against your friends and family. Maybe throw a couple bucks on it for whoever gets the most right.
However you bet this Super Bowl weekend, do it responsibly and good luck!
May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor.
- / 1 year ago
To me, Rachel Nichols is the personification of posting a black square on Instagram.