THE NFL SLEEPER CELL
PRE-WEEK 5 LEADERBOARD
10. Charlie Forray – 29.61
9. Andrew Wilhelm – 31.69
8. Andrew O’Neill – 45.17
7. Joanna Krupnick – 50.72
6. Meg Schneider – 65.31
5. Kevin Morin – 94.08
4. Ryan Kelly – 94.16
3. Justin Colombo – 155.4
2. Jake Bridges – 181.1
1. Ned Donovan – 188.6
HOW IT WORKS
Each week our writers will make one sleeper pick each, in the hopes of that guy pulling through and exploding for a big week. We’ll note reasons why we like that player over another so on and what not. Each writer will accrue points every week from their pick, but there’s a catch.
Since it’s about sleepers, we’re going to take the DraftKings ownership percentage and subtract that amount of points. For example, if you select Drew Brees as your pick and he scored 50 points, but his ownership is at 50%, you’ll only score 25. If your Running Back, Wide Reciever, Tight End, or Defense’s ownership is under 5%, your points will multiply, 5% is multiplied by 1.5, 4% by 2, 3% by 3, 2% by 4, 1% by 5, and less than 1% by 6. For Quarterbacks, the multipliers are halved, 4% by 1.25, 3% by 1.5, 2% by 2, 1% by 2.5, and less than 1% by 3.
At the end of the season, the top 2 writers with the most points will split a $100 prize pool $75/$25.
9. Jake Bridges – 181.1
Geronimo Allison – WR, Green Bay Packers
0.0 Points – 1.2% Ownership
HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN. Jake went all-in on this weeks pick, and for that, you gotta give him credit. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, Jake texted me saying “Geronimo Allison has two targets and zero catches… so he hasn’t even touched the ball.” However, if there’s any week where to put up a zero, it’s this one. Why do I say that? Let’s keep going, shall we?
8. Andrew Wilhelm – 31.69
Aldrick Robinson – WR, San Francisco 49ers
1.5 Points – 3.6% Ownership
Our second low ownership, no payoff pick of the week. I mean, this one is a simple structure. If Brian Hoyer can find his receivers they’ll go off. It’s a matchup play paired with a mid-level quarterback. It’s a goldmine for points. Not this week as the 49ers offense didn’t target Robinson or Trent Taylor, instead opting for guys higher up on the depth chart like Pierre Garçon, Marquise Goodwin and George Kittle downfield. Even the 49ers backfield options saw more targets than Aldrick and Taylor.
7. Ryan Kelly – 94.16
Trent Taylor – WR, San Francisco 49ers
1.6 Points – 1.6% Ownership
NUMBER 3 of the week! Low ownership, no payoff! WOOF.
6. Justin Colombo – 155.4
Wayne Gallman, Jr. – RB, New York Giants
13.2 Points – 6.5% Ownership
Since this is my pick, I’ll be completely honest with you, Gallman was both way under what I thought it would be and way over. I expected DFS players to go for other backs and not waste a spot on Gallman and the underperforming Giants offense. I think we’re just lucky Gallman didn’t go on the IR after that game. I expect Gallman’s usage and ownership to go up both in season-long leagues and DFS tournaments. Going 5-for-5 receiving and leading the team with 11 carries, Gallman could be the silver lining to an otherwise garbage Giants season.
5. Meg Schneider – 65.31
J.D. McKissic – RB, Seattle Seahawks
6.6 Points – 4.8% Ownership
Who is the lead running back in the Seahawks backfield? There was so much talk about who would be the Seahawks bell cow, and it turns out it just might be Russell Wilson. With Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise seeing most of the action, McKissic turns into a boom or bust option moving forward. With Pete Carroll spreading the love around, McKissic might become a difference maker week to week, but is it worth the risk? I’m saying no.
4. Ned Donovan – 188.6
Andre Ellington – RB, Arizona Cardinals
15.3 Points – 8.6% Ownership
Andre Ellington had an interesting Sunday, but then again, so did every Cardinal who attempted to rush against Philly’s Defense. Chris Johnson racked up the most yards on the ground with 21 on 9 carries, which is not great. Ellington only had one carry for negative yardage, but it was as a check-down back that he did the most damage. With 9 catches for 80 yards, Ellington was lead the Cardinals in receptions and was second in receiving yards, 15 behind J.J. Nelson. Giving Carson Palmer a target down low not only gives Ellington a huge upside as a DFS play but will also open up guys like Larry Fitzgerald and J.J. Nelson downfield. It’s a win-win in Arizona.
3. Kevin Morin – 94.08
Will Fuller V – WR, Houston Texans
20.2 Points – 13.50% Ownership
Here’s what I like about this pick, it’s a solid must-have. By that I mean, Fuller’s performance on Sunday Night makes him a must-have in your lineup due to the amount of point he scored and his ownership total. Think of it this way, if 15% of the people have 20 points and you have 0, that 15 % of people are already ahead of you, and you have to make up ground with another guy. 20 points is a lot to make up. The two lineups of mine that hit paydirt both had Fuller, he was mandatory. A great call by Kevin, despite his high ownership.
2. Joanna Krupnick – 50.72
Alex Collins – RB, Baltimore Ravens
5.5 Points – 1.4% Ownership
The play was Buck Allen. Should have gone with Buck Allen. He’s got more receiving upside than Collins. Live and learn, y’all.
1. Andrew O’Neill – 45.17
Zach Miller – TE, Chicago Bears
12.9 Points – 3.2% Ownership
Sometimes good things come to those who wait. I have always been a big proponent of taking at the very least, one guy from the last game of the contest. That guy was Zach Miller and it paid off. With Mitch Trubisky making his first NFL start for the Bears it was interesting to see how their offense shifted to his style of play. What we did see was who his favorite targets were. Zach Miller saw the ball coming his way more than any other receiver with 7, 3 of which he caught. That’s not a percentage I like, but I’ll take it especially since one was for a touchdown. Not too shabby.
THE 3 UP, 3 DOWN
NFL SLEEPER CELL
10. Charlie Forray – 29.61
9. Andrew Wilhelm – 36.19
8. Joanna Krupnick – 77.61
7. Meg Schneider – 78.51
6. Andrew O’Neill – 83.87
5. Ryan Kelly – 102.16
4. Kevin Morin – 111.55
3. Justin Colombo – 167.79
2. Jake Bridges – 181.1
1. Ned Donovan – 202.58
CHECK BACK IN WITH US ON SATURDAY FOR A WHOLE NEW WEEK OF SLEEPERS! WANT TO PLAY ALONG? TWEET US YOUR PICKS TO @3UP3DOWNBLOG BY SUNDAY AT 12!
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