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NFL Sleeper Cell Week 4 Picks: The Mixon Administration

The Mixon Administration begins in Cincinnati. Jacksonville gets some love. Will Jimmy Graham show up? CHECK IT OUT!

NFL Sleeper Cell Week 4 Picks: The Mixon Administration


Estimated Reading Time: 7 Minutes


THE NFL SLEEPER CELL

PRE-WEEK 4 LEADERBOARD


10. Charlie Forray – 22.21

9.  Andrew Wilhelm – 24.29

8. Joanna Krupnick – 26.57

 7. Andrew O’Neill – 39.57

6. Meg Schneider – 40.51

5. Ryan Kelly  – 40.76

4. Kevin Morin – 79.92

3. Justin Colombo  – 104.40

2. Ned Donovan – 152.26

1. Jake Bridges – 173.70


HOW IT WORKS


Each week our writers will make one sleeper pick each, in the hopes of that guy pulling through and exploding for a big week. We’ll note reasons why we like that player over another so on and what not. Each writer will accrue points every week from their pick, but there’s a catch.

Since it’s about sleepers, we’re going to take the DraftKings ownership percentage and subtract that amount of points. For example, if you select Drew Brees as your pick and he scored 50 points, but his ownership is at 50%, you’ll only score 25. If your Running Back, Wide Reciever, Tight End, or Defense’s ownership is under 5%, your points will multiply 5% is multiplied by 1.5, 4% by 2, 3% by 3, 2% by 4, 1% by 5, and less than 1% by 6. For Quarterbacks, the multipliers are halved, 4% by 1.25, 3% by 1.5, 2% by 2, 1% by 2.5, and less than 1% by 3.

At the end of the season, the top 2 writers with the most points will split a $100 prize pool $75/$25.


THE PICKS


10. Charlie Forray – 22.21

Joe Mixon – RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon. I was on set all day. Feel free to use this as my blurb. Love you, the blog, Football, and freedom of speech.

#MostofusareActors #ThisBlogWasPutTogetherBackstageAtKinkyBootsonBroadway #Lombardi

9.  Andrew Wilhelm – 24.29

Joe Mixon – RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Things we’ve learned so far through 3 weeks of this. 1) I suck at this and should never bet actual money on DFS style fantasy football. 2) I do know what I’m doing as far as weekly Fantasy Football goes where I am in 1st place at 3-0 and a wide margin of points in both my leagues. Okay, now that I feel better about myself on to this week’s pick. Last week I got burned by Cleveland which should come as a surprise to absolutely no one. So for this week, I’m going to go for someone who’s lining up against them. The Browns run D has been awful, and since the Bengals made a switch at Offensive Coordinator, it seems like Mixon is going to get a bunch more snaps. If those two things combine correctly, this is probably a good pick this week. But you shouldn’t trust me on that.

8. Joanna Krupnick – 26.57

Jimmy Graham – TE, Seattle Seahawks

Justin keeps saying how much he hates Jimmy Graham in his sleep. So that sounds like a good pick for this week.

 7. Andrew O’Neill – 39.57

Jay Cutler – QB, Miami Dolphins

This week give me Jay Cutler.  The league’s most unenthusiastic leader has so far conducted its most unenthusiastic offense, and the Dolphins will play this week in London a week removed from a convincing loss to the Jets.  While none of this sounds like a ringing endorsement, a convincing loss to the Jets does have a rock-bottom kind of ring to it, and the game also comes against the Saints, which for an opposing quarterback means that there will be lots of scores by the NO offense to match and also a bad NO defense to make it easier.

6. Meg Schneider – 40.51

Blake Bortles – QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

This week I’m picking Blake Bortles. He’s facing the Jets, and even though they managed to shut out the Dolphins last week, I don’t feel confident that they’ll be able to do it (ever) again.

5. Ryan Kelly  – 40.76

Robby Anderson – WR, New York Jets

Picking a guy on Cleveland worked out for me exactly the way picking someone on Cleveland usually does. So what’s my next move?

Pick someone on the Jets, of course.

I think Robby Anderson could be poised to make a few big plays on some bombs downfield this Sunday. The Jets offense looked somehow less than inept last week, and if journeyman Josh McCown can find his stride here, Anderson could serve as a useful deep threat against a team in Jacksonville that has been stingy against opposing passing attacks in 2017 thus far. I’m banking on the Jets trailing most of this game and needing to air it out more often than they’d like. This, in turn, could translate into more targets for Anderson. My gut tells me he’s boom or bust- he’ll rack up either 90 yards on seven catches and a TD or seven yards on one catch with like three total targets. Here’s to hoping for the former.

4. Kevin Morin – 79.92

DeShone Kizer – QB, Cleveland Browns

I’m a week late on the Browns bandwagon, but I’m going to take DeShone Kizer in Week 4. Although he has a TD-INT ratio of 3-7, he’s going to start coming into his own. The kid came out of the gates against Pittsburgh and had a QB Rating of 85.7, throwing and rushing for a TD. His favorite target in that game was Corey Coleman, who is broken outside due to his newly broken hand, and broken inside due to being forced to play football in Cleveland. This allowed Kizer to link up better with fellow youngin’ Rashard Higgins in Week 2, even though he had a difficult time overall playing in Baltimore. He attempted 16 more passes at Indy than he had in either of the first two games, linking up with Kenny Britt and Duke Johnson Jr. for TDs. He clearly has a long way to go, but he’s getting more comfortable. Back home in Cleveland for the first time since his solid career debut, expect that crowd to get some wind in his sails and give Cincy’s D a run for their money.

3. Justin Colombo  – 104.40

Cooper Kupp – WR, Los Angeles Rams

KUPP CHECK. I’m not gonna lie. I hate this pick. I really do. I’m literally sitting here typing this out and I’m just the most sure he’s gonna have the highest of ownership on Sunday. JUST KIDDING. Cooper Kupp is going to be a stud against the Cowboys this Sunday. Sammy Watkins is coming off a huge game and will no doubt be drawing the most attention from the Dallas secondary. Not to mention the monster game from Robert Woods last week. I’m looking for Kupp to be in man coverage all day and I can’t wait to see this kid exploit the hell out of it. It’s very apparent that Jared Goff likes being a decent NFL quarterback and spreading the ball around, so I think we’ll see him toss it to Kupp a few times against America’s team.

2. Ned Donovan – 152.26

Wendell Smallwood – RB, Philadelphia Eagles

I don’t know what it was about this dude, but I noticed him back when he was at West Virginia, and I started rooting for him to make it in the NFL. Fast forward to 2016 and the Eagles use a 5th round draft pick on him, and I rubbed my hands together expectantly because a backfield of Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Kenjon Barner seemed like one ripe to be taken over. Then he…….didn’t.

Now we’re in 2017 and Wendell Smallwood did exactly nothing in weeks 1 and 2 and I thought “well god damn it”. However when Darren Sproles went down in Week 3, Smallwood’s number got called and he stepped up in a big way. 71 yards on 12 carries, 2 receptions. He fit right into the Sproles mold and going up this week against the second worst defense against the run in the league, the LA Chargers, he should have the opportunity to have a big day.

The Eagles backfield is tricky. In week 2 LeGarrette Blount did literally nothing but has also been their lead back at times. Two days again, the Eagles resigned Kenjon Barner to a 1 year contract, and in 2016 he was ahead of Smallwood on the depth chart. If Barner takes Sproles’ spot, then expect Smallwood to be quiet. But me? I’m expecting Smallwood to be the featured back this week, especially as the quick ditch option for Wentz and to find himself with well over 100 yards combined and the potential for at least one score.

1. Jake Bridges – 173.70

Allen Hurns – WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ok, so far so good through 3 weeks. Myself and Ned are starting to separate ourselves from the pack. Gotta stay one step ahead of him with another great pick this week. Pressure is on!

For this week’s sleeper, I’m staying wide receiver and picking Jacksonville Jaguars WR Allen Hurns. He gets a tasty matchup with a sorry New York Jets team that I think the Jags will be able to exploit. The Jets are surprisingly middle of the road statistically against the pass this season, so this isn’t like picking against the Colts defense. It has less to do with my faith in the Bortles to Hurns connection than picking against the Jets. One thing that could go horribly wrong here is a blowout.. If the Jags get up big, then it should be a big “Feed Fournette and Kill the Clock” day. Let’s hope it turns into a shootout..

And on that note, Hurns has scored each of the last two weeks, and he has started to emerge as a receiving threat in the Jaguars offense with Allen Robinson down for the year. What makes him a sleeper in my book is the fact that he only got 3 catches last week on 3 targets. In fact, on the year he only has 12 catches on 14 targets. This isn’t the obvious choice, but that’s the point of the game! Even though he hasn’t popped on the stat sheet yet, I think he continues his end zone streak as Bortles continues to build trust in Hurns. Let’s keep this good thing going!


Check in Next Week to see the Results of the Plays!

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