Is Russell Wilson being undervalued a week after throwing 3 picks? Will the Bills finally solve their Patriots problem? And a rookie quarterback, bet him? Don’t bet him? Let break down the best bets for the NFL in week 8.
49ers at Seahawks (-2.5)
I think what we have here is a perfect storm of oddsmakers riding high on the 49ers after their rout of the Patriots in Foxboro one week after their rout of the Rams on Sunday Night football. Combine that with Russell Wilson’s 3 INT, come from ahead loss to the Cardinals this past week, and I think we see some value in Seattle at home at -3.
The Seahawks haven’t covered in their last two outings and have played in 5 straight one score games, so this one is going to be close. But if you believe Russell Wilson to be a league MVP candidate, if you think Seattle is the odds on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, then I don’t think he drops 2 in a row inside the division. Sharp money has brought this line down to within 3. Lay the points with Seattle here.
Bet: Seattle -2.5
Patriots (+3.5) at Bills
Since returning from the Covid list, Cam Newton has thrown 5 interceptions and 0 touchdowns. They were just embarrassed at home by the 49ers and, at 2-4, they are teetering on the brink of a hole too deep to climb out of in the talented AFC. And that’s why I like them this week! If you don’t think Bill Belichick is going to respond after a beating like the one he took at the hands of the 49ers then you haven’t been paying attention.
As a head coach Sean McDermott is 2-11 against Super Bowl winning coaches, including 4-9 ATS. Jared Allen has yet to beat the Patriots in his career, and as much as I know Bills Mafia is salivating at the opportunity to finally beat the Patriots, I see this being a close contest. Belichick is surely quietly fuming after last week’s blow out, and the Defense, which isn’t a bad Defense, will play with a chip on their shoulder after getting gashed by San Fran to the tune of 467 total yards. I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. As an underdog Belichick is 23-11-2 ATS and off a loss 41-17 ATS, as an underdog after a loss, 8-0 ATS. Give me the points in a divisional match up with the GOAT coach…from Baaaaw-ston.
Bet: New England +3.5
Raiders (+2.5) at the Browns
The Raiders are coming off a 45-20 home loss to the Bucs. But, since 2003, teams that lost by 25 or more are 53.1% against the spread the next week so there is value with the Raiders in this spot. The Browns will be without OBJ, but I still see this as a high scoring back and forth. Cleveland will have no problem running the ball, but Carr should have no problems passing. If this stays under 3 take the Money Line on the Raiders, if not take the field goal plus.
Bet: Raiders ML (+129)
Rams (-4) at Dolphins
I’m going to fade Tua right out the gate. The reasoning is twofold. One, he’s coming in off a bye, and he’s going to have to get in-sync with the offense real quick because on the other side of the ball is a Rams defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey who will be riding high after destroying the Bears. The second reason is the Dolphins hold the Texans 1st round pick, a pick that is looking better by the week. This is a stress test for Tua. Is he their guy or are they going to have to kick the tires on one of the other first round QBs available in April?
I’m not paying to find out. I’ll lay the reasonable amount of points on the Rams to take care of business in Tua’s debut.
Bet: Rams -3
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