Last week I went 3-2 with my best bets, including that Steelers Cowboys call. I told you, I told you, I told you, the Steelers were absolutely winning that game, and absolutely not covering that 13.5 point spread. If you made rent on that one, you’re welcome! Hope I can help you out again this week.
Let’s have a look.
Ravens (-7) at Patriots
Last week the Ravens over the Colts was my big pick of the week and this week they are back up there again. Why? They are playing the Patriots, who needed a last min field goal to beat the Jets in a come from behind effort. (Yes, the Jets!) Before that they had lost 4 straight, they have the most turnovers in the NFL, Cam Newton is not that good. Baltimore has the best run defense in the league, they pressure the quarterback. On offense they are killing it running the ball, Lamar Jackson barely has to pass.
On top of that, they have some ground to make up on the Steelers heading into their Thanksgiving night match which they hope will be for the division lead. But not with an L Sunday night. I’m laying the chalk on the Ravens here, grab this line at -7 before it jumps higher.
Bet: Ravens –6.5 (take them up to -7)
Browns (-3.5) at Texans
The Browns have beaten up on bad teams this year. The Bengals, the Cowboys, Washington, the Bengals again. They have won when they should and lost when they should this season, making them pretty consistent from a bettor’s perspective. Enter the Houston Texans. The Texans have 2 wins, each one was against Jacksonville. Browns are fresh off a bye and getting healthy. Go with it till it stops working.
Buccaneers at Panthers (+5.5)
Conventional wisdom says, don’t bet against Tom Brady when he is angry. And BOY is he gonna be angry after that 38-3 shellacking at the hands of the Saints. America finally stopped watching election news just in time to see that beat down.
The Panthers have lost four straight. So why do I like them here? A couple of reasons. One they have kept things close in losing efforts. 27-24 a few weeks ago in New Orleans, and 33-31 just last week at home to KC. But there is more. This year divisional home dogs are 11-2 ATS. Teddy Bridgewater is 15-4 ATS after a loss for his career. He is also 32-11 in his career ATS. Now Tom Brady could easily wipe all that out with the snap of his finger. But for now I’ll take the points on a home dog and pray the GOAT doesn’t make me regret it.
Seahawks (+2) vs Rams
The Seattle Seahawks have the worst pass defense in the league and the Rams are 4-1 in the last five vs the Seahawks. What I like about the Seahawks is not their defense, it’s the trends on Russell Wilson. Wilson is 23-9 as an underdog. Road dogs off a loss this year has also proven a profitable bet.
The Rams have a top flight offense and a better defense. Seattle’s defense has struggle to stay off the field. The Rams have also won 5 straight at home. Something tells me they are going to drop a home game soon and I could see it being against Seattle.
I like the trends favoring Seattle there, and this number, the Rams are 1-2 against teams with winning records this season. The one being the Chicago Bears, arguably the weakest team with a current winning record. This is going to be a shootout, but I like Wilson and the points.