Last week I went 3-1 with my best bets. But I want to assure all our readers, I’ve filed a lawsuit in Miami with the hopes of getting our loss, Rams vs Dolphins, replayed. Currently, there is a mob of supporters outside Hard Rock Stadium chanting “Play it again” “Play it again”. But until that unlikely scenario plays out, lets get into Week 9.
Bears at Titans (+6.5)
I narrowly left last weeks Bears-Saints game off my list, but I bet it anyway. There’s an interesting thing with the Chicago Bears this year in that their offense, in most cases, isn’t good enough to win. But, their defense is, at worst, good enough to keep it close.
The Titans are coming off back to back losses, one of which was last week to the hapless Bengals. The Bengals fielded 4 backup offensive linemen. The result was the Tennessee defense allowed Joe Burrow to go 26 of 37 for 249 yards and 2 TDs. Tennessee has struggled on defense this year and after last weeks OT loss to the Saints, I think the Bears will keep it a closer game than oddsmakers are anticipating. I could even see the Chicago coming away with a W.
If we look recent trends we see that road underdogs of at least 6 points are 32-13 ATS. How do you not throw some of last weeks winning on the Bears in this situation?
Bet: Chicago +6.5
Giants (+2.5) at Washington
We thought the Giants might do the unthinkable on Monday Night for a little bit there. And if you read my Monday Night Football preview article, I said the game had trap written all over it. The Bucs stepped into the trap, but the trap didn’t spring. That said that was an encouraging game from the Giants. Let’s look into some more encouraging trends.
The Giants have now played in 6 one score games. Going 1-5 in those contests. That lone win, came 3 weeks ago against Washington. In fact the Giants have won the last 4 against Washington. Daniel Jones is 2 for 3 vs the Giants in his career. I think this will be another close NY Giants game. Divisional underdogs have gone 25-14 ATS this season. Again, I like the points here.
Bet: New York +2.5
Ravens (-1.5) at Colts
The 5-2 Ravens, coming off a close back and forth loss to the Steelers last week. I like Baltimore in this game for a few reasons. First is I think this line is low due the Ravens now without tackle Ronnie Stanley (out for the season) and cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Ravens have lost to the two best teams in the AFC right now (Steelers, Chiefs). What we are looking at on Sunday is a battle for 3rd best. Colts have a stellar D, but not as good as the Steelers, which Baltimore had a good game against in some areas.
But the biggest reason I’m betting the Ravens this week, having nothing to do with facts, Is I’m a Steelers fan. The Ravens falling to 5-3 while the Steelers potentially jump to 8-0? I can tell you as a lifelong Steelers fan, its NEVER…THAT…EASY!
Bet: Ravens -1.5
Chargers (-1.5) vs Raiders
The Chargers have be blowing leads like it’s going out of style! Add last weeks 24-3 blown 3rd quarter lead, and that makes it 4 games in a row with blown leads. They are bound to come away with a win sooner or later. I think it could come against the Raiders. Vegas is riding high after a close and very boring game against Cleveland last week. The Chargers have been doing everything right to win games, except for holding leads late. And that’s the most important part of the lead, the holding….anyone can take the lead.
I think the Chargers will finally get one in the win column over a banged up and not very efficient Raiders defense.
Bet: Chargers -1.5
Im riding with the road warriors this weekend. You should too.
One last thing:
Steelers vs Cowboys (+13.5)
I’ll caveat this with, I’m not going to be betting this game. As mentioned above I’m a Steelers fan, and as a personal rule I don’t bet Steelers games, period.
But if you’re feeling froggy, here’s some information I can offer you: The Steelers keep things unnecessarily close. Closer than they should be in most circumstances. In fact, they have only won one game this year that would cover a 13.5 point spread. Yes the Cowboys are terrible, yes they are set to potentially start a fourth string quarterback. No, I don’t anticipate an upset here. But I could see a situation in which the Steelers jump out big in the first half, get conservative in the second, and allow the Cowboys at least the ability to narrow the lead to within 10-13 points. So there is some value, if you just need to bet on this game, with the Cowboys +13.5
Last Week: 3-1