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NFL Sleeper Cell: Chester Rogers’ Neighborhood – Week 6

We’re back and while the picks are sleepers, we’re wide awake and ready to go.

Lucas Oil Stadium by Josh Hallet is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

NFL Sleeper Cell: Chester Rogers’ Neighborhood – Week 6


Estimated Reading Time: 8 Minutes

When I first started this site, the emphasis was Daily Fantasy Sports. I have had a lot of success playing Draftkings and FanDuel and was looking for a way to express my knowledge of the game. The first post entitled “How It Works” went something like this:

“Let’s start by getting something out of the way. I’m not an expert. I’m not Peter Gammons, Bill James, Theo Epstein or Buster Olney. If anything, I’m closer to Aaron Boone; just a guy who knows a few things about baseball, has a platform to share them, but in the end, isn’t known for incredible analysis. I’m just a guy. I’m simple, and in the world of Daily Fantasy Baseball, simplicity is key. So how’s this gonna work?

Every day, I am going to let you in on 3 guys I am UP on for the day, and 3 guys I am DOWN on. The blog is called Three Up, Three Down for a reason. In between, I’ll talk strategy, I’ll talk who to take, picking against a pitcher, picking against a team, a ballpark, even picking against the other DFS players. I’m here to help you crack the code of the day’s lineups using stats, rumor, legend and most important, my gut feelings on how well David Ortiz is going to hit Nick Tropeano in the second game of a three game stint in Anaheim. “

There’s a secret key to playing Daily Fantasy Sports hidden in that passage. It’s the most important piece of advice I can give you to be successful playing DFS sports. You have to pick against other players.

That’s what wins. You could have a full lineup of the top performer players, but if 90 other people have that lineup, your winnings will be significantly smaller. That’s where Sleepers come in.

A Sleeper is a player who you believe is going to break out and have a very, very productive week, but not many people know about. For example, Dak Prescott was a sleeper last year. Everyone thought Tony Romo was the guy who would take Dallas the distance, but after another back injury, Dak was named the starter ahead of the 2016 season. And he went off.

Dak went primarily undrafted in most 2016 drafts, as he was an untested rookie, but now he’s a stud with an arsenal of weapons and a strong running game behind him. He was a sleeper and is now a bonafide play each week.

Another example of a sleeper is Kareem Hunt, a guy most of you probably didn’t know existed until he murdered the New England Patriots Defense Week 1 of the 2017 season. SLEEPER.

So what we’ve decided to do here at the Turf. It’s our own kind of Fantasy Football, all based around Sleepers. 

-Justin Colombo, Head Writer at The Turf

HOW IT WORKS

Each week our writers will make one sleeper pick each, in the hopes of that guy pulling through and exploding for a big week. We’ll note reasons why we like that player over another so on and what not. Each writer will accrue points every week from their pick, but there’s a catch.

Since it’s about sleepers, we’re going to take the DraftKings ownership percentage and subtract that amount of points. For example, if you select Drew Brees as your pick and he scored 50 points, but his ownership is at 50%, you’ll only score 25. If your Running Back, Wide Reciever, Tight End, or Defense’s ownership is under 5%, your points will multiply, 5% is multiplied by 1.5, 4% by 2, 3% by 3, 2% by 4, 1% by 5, and less than 1% by 6. For Quarterbacks, the multipliers are halved, 4% by 1.25, 3% by 1.5, 2% by 2, 1% by 2.5, and less than 1% by 3.

At the end of the season, the top 2 writers with the most points will split a $100 prize pool $75/$25.

Do you follow that? Picking a sleeper is the most important thing you can do for a DFS lineup, and low ownership allows you to score those points and no one else!

So without further adieu, The Turf Sports and Draftkings presents…

THE SLEEPER CELL

2018 Sleeper Cell Leaderboard

  1. Andrew Mark Wilhelm – 271.9
  2. Andrew O’Neill – 239.4
  3. Joe Dalfonso – 207.18
  4. Chris Crider-Plonka – 203.5
  5. Matteo Mills – 189.3
  6. Charlie Forray – 166.4
  7. Ryan Kelly – 145.6
  8. Kevin Michael Morin – 142.55
  9. Meg Schneider – 132.4
  10. Justin Colombo – 131.2
  11. Ben Salus – 123.68
  12. Mark DiGiammarino – 96.79
  13. Sam Silva – 76.05
  14. Matt Branigan – 68.0
  15. Matt DaSilva – 57.68
  16. Joanna Krupnick – 54.01

THIS WEEK’S PICKS

16. Joanna Krupnick – Erik Swoope – TE, Indianpolis Colts

The Colts have a long tradition of using tight ends in Football games. Dwayne Allen, Colby Fleener, Eric Ebron. That tradition continues with Swoope this sunday against the New York Jets. 

15. Matt DaSilva – Chester Rogers – WR, Indianapolis Colts

Jets defense has given up a bunch of yards to opposing wideouts. I truly have not idea what’s going to happen in this game – two frisky teams. 
But I do believe that: Chester is gonna get the BEST-er of the Colts scoring opportunities.

14. Matt Branigan – Jalen Richard – RB, Oakland Raiders

There won’t be a 12th man in this game, as it is being played in London at Wembley Stadium. I feel like anything can happen when these games are played in London; unless you’re the Jaguars, and if that’s the case then you somehow play like you’re the 2007 Patriots. Remember last year when Mercedes Lewis had 4 receptions for 62 yards and 3 TDs in London? MERCEDES LEWIS!

Anyway, believe it or not, Jalen Richard has caught 82.7% of his targets this season, and Carr seems to be looking his way more and more recently as a reliable pass-catcher. Martavis Bryant is listed as questionable with an illness for this game, and if Martavis Bryant is ever listed as questionable, you can pretty much bank on him not playing at all. If Bryant is out, Richard could get more looks.

Seattle’s defense is also 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. So maybe Richard can even notch some rushing yards in this match-up, despite his super quiet running game this season.

Basically, this is me hoping that Richard can find the end zone and somehow be this year’s Mercedes Lewis in London.

13. Sam Silva – Robby Anderson – WR, New York Jets

The Jets play an Indianapolis Colts pass defense that is beat up.  The last two weeks the Colts have given up a league-leading 55 targets and 516 yards, plus four touchdowns to WR’s. Anderson has 5 targets for 123 yards and 2 TDs last week

12. Mark DiGiammarino – Keke Coutee – WR, Houston Texans

Coutee has had a great run over the last two weeks with an average of 8.5 receptions, 80 yards and 11 targets per game. He should be able to keep the streak alive against Buffalo’s streaky defense.

11. Ben Salus – Laquon Treadwell – WR, Minnesota Vikings

I think Treadwell and the Vikings dominate the Cards this week. He’ll probably get about five or six targets behind Diggs and Thielen.

10. Justin Colombo – Marlon Mack – RB, Indianapolis Colts

Marlon Mack is a beast. A lot of people are going to overlook his talents and point to his injury and stay away. Macktion is ready to rock. Get into it. 

9. Meg Schneider – Chester Rogers – WR, Indianapolis Colts

Is there another Chester in the NFL? Has there ever been? His name is a rarity, as is his ownership. Indy faces the Jets this week, and Gang Green are giving up receptions like the Giants have given up on winning…which could equate to Chester’s sleeper success.

8. Kevin Michael Morin – Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are playing the Falcons this week. Atlanta has been abysmal against the run this year. Jones is unlikely to get a ton of touches, but I think Tampa will be looking to use a bunch of different backs. This should give Jones some opportunities. And, who knows, maybe he can punch in his first touchdown. We’ll have to wait and see.

7. Ryan Kelly – Christian Kirk – WR, Arizona Cardinals

This kid loves catching the deep ball, and he has a QB with a hell of an arm. I think Minnesota’s defense still rides the stingy reputation it earned last season but is much softer than it appears. The Vikings have allowed at least 21 points in each of their last five games, so I think Kirk and the rest of the Cardinals have a sneaky good matchup here.

6. Charlie Forray – Nyheim Hines – RB, Indianapolis Colts

So… I picked a super dope player who is totally gonna go off this week in Alfred Morris. Buuuut, I accidentally overlooked that he plays Monday. So, NYHEIM HINES IT IS!! He catches a few passes every game and should get at least a few yards.

5. Matteo Mills – Jalen Richard – RB, Oakland Raiders 

He’s a pass-catching running back that continues to have an opportunity in an offense looking to find its way. Against a struggling Seattle team, I like his chances of finding some magic this week. One short pass for a 40 yard touchdown is just what the doctor called for. I feel like I’m not asking for much here.

4. Chris Plonka  – Jameis Winston – QB, Buccaneers 

Making his first start this season after taking over for Fitzmagic last week and taking on a depleted and weak Falcons defense, Winston could be poised to have a big game. I don’t anticipate him staying successful all season, but for this week at least, I’ll give him a shot.

3. Joe Dalfonso – No Pick.

2. Andrew O’Neill – Chester Rogers – WR -Indianapolis Colts

The Colts/Andrew Luck are missing major target options in T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle, and next-best target Eric Ebron will start but will do so with FOUR injuries listed.

I fear that Erik Swoope will get red zone targets, but Rogers, who caught 8 of 11 throws his way last week, will get the looks everywhere else and have a big game.

1. Andrew Mark Wilhelm – Virgil Green – TE – Los Angeles Chargers

The Browns don’t have a great pass defense. Green averages more snapstha Antonio Gates. It hasn’t resulted in good fantasy points for Green yet and I’m hoping this is the week that trend stops. So is my DFS roster for this Sunday.

CHECK BACK IN NEXT WEEK TO SEE HOW WE DID!

THINK YOU CAN BEAT US? TWEET US YOUR PICKS TO @THETURFSPORTS! PICKS LOCK EVERY SUNDAY AT 12!

You can even play along by clicking the link below!

We are a promoter at DraftKings and are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal views on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of  DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

The Turf is the newest online hub for everything going on in the sports world. That’s right. We. Cover. Everything.

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