Here’s where we are. FOUR games ahead for the year after three weeks.
As we discussed last week, if you’re one of my many millionaire followers and you put a milly down on each game, you’re four million ahead (minus the juice).
Let’s keep this rolling!
Let’s get into the slate for Week 4!
Week 3 = 8-6-1
Season-to-Date = 24-20-1
Week 4 of the 2021 NFL Season
Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Washington’s struggles on offense make sense with the unexpected changes at quarterback. However, their defense was supposed to be one of the best in the league, and they’ve given up the most points in the division.
The Pick = Atlanta
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (-16)
The Bills see their opportunity to be the clear-cut favorite in the AFC with the Chiefs floundering. Buffalo is going to use this game to flex their muscle a bit and put some fear into their conference rivals.
The Pick = Buffalo
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Not knowing who your QB will be… feels like a bad idea. Picking Detroit also feels like a bad idea.
I know the Lions are bad. I think everyone does.
But they have also shown fight in every game and I think this might be their best opportunity to get a win. And this team does not feel like one that’s going for the #1 pick.
At least not yet.
The Pick = Detroit
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Dallas fans are riding high right now, which normally would be a perfect time to pick against them.
The Pick = Dallas
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins (-2)
The Colts missing their best player and having to give less than 3 points? Sign me up.
The Dolphins showed a ton of heart in Vegas last week and I think they can pull this off.
The Pick = Miami
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings (+2)
I was wrong last week about Justin Fields vs. the Browns. But I was right about the Vikings triumphing over the Seahawks.
The Browns defense is going to have a tougher task against Minnesota this week and I like Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense to keep having success.
I will take the points at home in a non-conference game.
The Pick = Minnesota
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Saints back at home for the first time this season? I’d completely understand if the Giants just forfeit the game and ask if they can spend the game time watching “Squid Game” together.
The Pick = New Orleans
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (+7)
The easy idea is without their two top WR the Titans will just run the ball until the Jets cry for mercy. The Jets rush defense is giving up 3.8 yards-per-carry (8th best in the AFC) and they’ll be expecting this.
I don’t think the Jets can upset the Titans, but a cover is definitely in play.
The Pick = New York
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (+7)
Home dog in a non-conference game. I just said I love this situation.
The Eagles have scored 64 points this season and have given up 64 points. That’s the whole story. It’s a .500 team and they are playing a heavily talented team who is facing a must-win. And it’s a team that wants to get a bit of their swagger back.
Add in that Andy Reid likely always wants to prove a thing or two when he comes back to Philly, and this is an easy choice.
The Pick = Kansas City
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
Kyler Murray is 0-4 vs. the Rams with a 59% completion rate and 5/4 TD:INT ratio.
This feels like a let-down game for the Rams after beating Tampa Bay. I also don’t like giving up more than 3 points in a divisional game, but I think the Cardinals have shown some cracks in their armor. And I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL. I know what I said.
The Pick = Los Angeles
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
NFC West Grudge Match!
The Seahawks losing three in a row seems unlikely, and a three-point spread feels like a push is a worst-case scenario here.
The Pick = Seattle
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (-1)
The Ravens are getting several players back this week from IR and the COVID list.
Denver is undefeated but has had perhaps the easiest schedule in the league.
This is my most confident pick, which to review has been 0-3 this season. So fade accordingly.
The Pick = Baltimore
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Pittsburgh and, more specifically, Ben Roethlisberger look cooked.
Just like earlier this season when we said the Steelers blow games they’re supposed to win, they also seem to come back from the dead when all seems lost as well.
Green Bay has looked good the last two weeks, but this is a gut pick.
The Pick = Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots (+7)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Chargers are flying high after last week’s win versus the Chiefs, the AFC West Titan. But what else do the Raiders need to do before we view them as a legit team?
Sure, they had to scrape by to win at home vs. a team starting a backup. But a win is a win, and good teams find a way to take care of business.
Maybe Gruden and Co. have something cooking?
The Pick = Las Vegas
We’re almost at the quarter mark of the season and I have picked every non-Thursday game. What? I didn’t pick one this week? No, that can’t be true. What’s that? I think I hear the phone ringing. My laundry’s done. I have to go to the bathroom. Enjoy the games!
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