As Super Bowl LVI approaches I am going to dive right in to my favorite prop bets for this year. These are all bets that I WOULD make, and I plan to squeeze whatever I can into a parlay using the Draft Kings Risk-Free Same Game Parlay (or SGP) promo for $10. I’m going to swing for the fences and if I lose I’ll take that free bet and bet slightly more sensibly on the NBA’s Monday slate.
If you’re curious about how to bet on Super Bowl prop bets, this is your place. So without further adieu….Here are my prop bets for Super Bowl LVI!
First, the novelty bets
Note: These are not part of the SGP option, they are just for fun. And these odds are based on time of writing so may have been changed.
Opening Kickoff to Be a Touchback: NO (+110)
Believe it or not 18 of the last 20 opening kickoffs of the Super Bowl have been returned. At plus-money odds and on the advice of Pro NFL kicker Pat McAfee who’s been there, how can you not take this bet? McAfee, who opened Super Bowl XLIV with a kick that was not a touchback, had this to say on his podcast before last years Super Bowl.
“There isn’t normally a touchback on the opening kickoff because the ball is a brand new ball, it’s basically just plastic. Most balls that you kick have been rubbed down for 30 minutes by your equipment manager and the other team’s equipment manager in the presence of an NFL official and it’s beat up a little bit“
Couple that fact with the notion that every NFL kick returner dreams of their Devin Hester moment, and I think this kick gets brought out. Even if it travels a few yards deep into the end zone.
Any Non QB to Complete a Passing TD (+1400)
Ok, before you sneer, this is the Super Bowl and we are aiming high. Anyone can say “Oh yeah, no non QB will throw a TD pass”. But it takes a special kind of genius to call a WR or RB to toss a TD pass on a gadget play in the Super Bowl. It has happened in a Super Bowl before, after all! In addition, it has been dialed up by the Rams already once this season.
You’d be the talk of your Super Bowl party and all subsequent Super Bowl parties thereafter if you nail this prop bet. To quote Shane Falco, “Glory lasts forever”.
In Game Props
Now that we got a few of the absurd bets out of the way, lets get into the meat and potatoes of the game. These props CAN be included in an SGP.
Odell Beckham Jr o64.5 receiving yards (-120)
I took this same prop in the NFC championship game and I have no problems going back to the well for another go. He has gone over that number in 2 of 3 of the Rams playoff games. While the Bengals secondary has improved from seasons past, they still gave up 50+ yards to 3 WRs in the AFC Championship game, 2 WRs in the Divisional round, and 3 WRs in the Wildcard round. And now they will have to contend with Cooper Kupp as well. This makes for a nice play on OBJ with a fairly low receiving total.
Joe Burrow u276.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Joe Burrow has had what amounts to be a fantastic sophomore season. And if you are rooting for a shootout, this is not the prop for you. I think this Rams pass rush is not going to allow the young signal caller time to set in the pocket. LA’s pass rush boasts an NFL best 53% Pass Rush Win Rate. Meanwhile, the Bengals offensive line is down at 20th in the final rankings of the 2021 regular season.
Joe Mixon u60.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Perhaps you can see how I’m building out how I think the game will look. I’ll make no bones about it, I think the Rams win. And while I don’t think they’ll win in blowout fashion, I think they will control the game from the first quarter on. I watched the Rams give up a lot on the ground to San Fransisco in week 18. In that game they let SF dictate pace with their run game, giving up 85 yards to Elijah Mitchell and 45 to Deebo Samuel respectively. Since then the most they’ve allowed to a single rusher has been Leonard Fournette’s 51 yards in the Divisional round.
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-190)
This is what I like to call a parlay padder. I wouldn’t bet this prop outright as it will have a remarkably low payout. But Kupp should be able to find the endzone at some point in Super Bowl LVI.
Cooper Kupp to win Super Bowl MVP (+600)
Here is how I am thinking on this. It’s a huge long shot, and it’s gonna get weird, just follow me down the rabbit hole. If the Rams win, more than likely Stafford will get Super Bowl MVP. But that line is garbage and only worth a bet if you are padding. If Kupp has 2, 3, or 4 TDs receptions, Stafford will have them in passing. The only way I see Kupp getting this honor is if he can separate himself from Stafford on one of those TDs. Either by rushing or…passing. Remember our wild bet from earlier? Well now that can pay off full circle. It probably won’t, but it may be worth a sprinkle at these odds, especially if you place a small wager on a non Quarterback tossing a TD pass.
Same Game Parlay
Here is how our SGP is shaping up. I added the spread on the Rams and the Rams D with 2+ sacks. Because, as I said before, I think they are going to get after Burrow.
Odell Beckham Jr o62.5 receiving yards
Joe Mixon u60.5 Rush Yards
Joe Burrow u276.5 Passing Yards
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Rams 2+ Sacks
Cincinatti Bengals o12.5 Total Points
+1400 odds (as of writing this)
- / 1 year ago
To me, Rachel Nichols is the personification of posting a black square on Instagram.