Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo? Justin Fields or Andy Dalton/Nick Foles? Mac Jones or (gulp) Cam Newton?

It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that top two picks Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will be the opening day quarterbacks for the Jaguars and Jets, respectively. But what does the future hold for the three other quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft?

In New England, the reporting runs the gamut between Mac Jones being ready to play at an NFL level right now and Jones taking a “redshirt year” where he doesn’t even dress on game days, leaving the Patriots essentially in the same spot as last year, with Cam Newton being backed up by Jarret Stidham.

Last Ten Years of First Round QB’s w/ Rookie Year Stats

No Love for This First Rounder

From 2010-2020, thirty-four quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Of that group, only one first round quarterback has not touched the field in their rookie year. That was Jordan Love, who was inactive for every game of 2020. Tim Boyle backed up Aaron Rodgers, who probably whined his way into Love getting 0 reps.

Thirty-two of those quarterbacks were given at least one start in their rookie season. Only Jake Locker, who was picked 8^th overall by the Titans in 2011, did not start a game as a rookie. Locker played in just five games in 2011, never started a full season for the Titans, and, after going 9-14 over 23 games started, was out of the league at age 26, claiming he lost his passion for the sport.

That’s not to say that Locker would have turned out differently had he started a game as a rookie. But the fact is, first round quarterbacks are a big investment for a franchise, and it doesn’t pay to wait too long to see what you have.

Besides Locker and Love, only four quarterbacks started less than six games in their rookie year. One of them was Patrick Mahomes, who basically redshirted behind Alex Smith until the final game of the season, when he got his first start in Week 16 with the Chiefs’ playoff seeding already locked up. Evidently, Mahomes showed enough in that game for the Chiefs to trade Smith before the next season and open the door for the second-year quarterback to take over under center full-time.

What did he do with the opportunity? Only set records on his way to winning MVP.

Even just one start for Mahomes in his rookie year was enough to have massive implications for the future of the Kansas City franchise. It’s possible that if he hadn’t gotten that one start as a rookie, the Chiefs wouldn’t feel comfortable enough to hand him the reigns at the start of his sophomore year.

The other three players to start only a handful of games as a rookie were Tim Tebow (25^th pick by Denver in 2010), Johnny Manziel (22^nd pick by Cleveland in 2014) and Paxton Lynch (26^th pick by Denver in 2016). Those poor Broncos.

Mahomes is the exception to the group. Tebow, Manziel, Lynch, Locker – they all didn’t get many opportunities as rookies, and none of them lasted in the league very long. There’s something to be said for starting your first round draft picks and getting them up to NFL speed before they fall too far behind. Sometimes they never catch up.

“You Don’t Want to Ruin Him”

The concern with starting quarterbacks in their rookie year is that if they are not ready for primetime and play poorly, you will break their confidence and ruin them before their career can even get underway.

However, does that apply to a QB a team selected in the first round? If you are using a top-32 pick on a quarterback, it’s likely that you don’t have a franchise guy at the position, or at least not one with many years left in him. Drafting a quarterback that high and then not letting them get their feet wet in favor of a mediocre veteran option is a disservice to the rookie, the franchise and the fan base.

The truth is, nearly all of the rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round had losing records in their first season. Only Tua Tagovailoa (6-3), Mahomes (1-0), Lamar Jackson (6-1) and Andrew Luck (11-5) were above .500.

Jared Goff went 0-7 as a rookie. Marcus Mariota went 3-9. Kyler Murray went 5-10-1. Joe Burrow went 2-7-1. Justin Herbert won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but still had a 6-9 record.

Sure, Josh Rosen went 3-10 and never really recovered, but maybe some guys just don’t have what it takes to play in the league. By playing their quarterback in their first year, teams can get a head start on assessing what they have, and the players can get a potentially shaky rookie season out of the way and start to turn it around in the next year, if they indeed have that ability

So Where Does Mac Stand in 2021?

Lance was taken third overall by the 49ers, who traded up to get him. Fields went 11^th to the Bears, who also traded up. Both of those moves indicate that the teams are looking to find an opportunity to get those guys ready as quickly as possible and have them starting games by the end of the season.

Mac Jones is the biggest wildcard of the group, and not just because he was picked last among first round quarterbacks. He was still in the upper half of the first round, and all those examples of guys who didn’t play much in their rookie years (Tebow, Manziel, Lynch, Love) were all taken in the 20’s.

In the case of Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes, they were also joining teams with successful veteran quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith.

Cam Newton is not Aaron Rodgers. He is not even Alex Smith, who was a very capable pocket passer and a confident field general.

The Patriots are currently carrying four quarterbacks on their roster. The night of the draft, Belichick committed to Cam Newton as their starter. A few days later they resigned Brian Hoyer. Jarret Stidham is still deep in the Patriots system and some see him as a still in-progress project. Where does that leave Mac Jones?

The fact is this – He has to play this year, and he has to be starting at some point this season. Anything else would not just be a disservice to the franchise. It would fly in the face of the logic and history, and defy the opportunities that previous first round picks have been afforded to succeed in the league.