We are now two games over .500 this season! If you have followed these picks so far and bet $1,000,000 on every game then you, my friend, are $2,000,000 richer (minus the juice).
I don’t need you to say thank you, but you’re welcome, nonetheless.
Week 2 = 8-7
Season-to-date = 16-14
Let’s get into the slate for Week 3!
Week 3 of the 2021 NFL Season
Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Bills offense and Josh Allen have not looked as expected this season. Their defense, on the other hand, has come to play and they’re facing a quarterback who has never started a game on the road before.
I’m still dubious of how Buffalo will respond to being a favorite this season. However, this game feels like it’s well within their grasp.
The Pick = Buffalo
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-7)
This game will be Justin Fields’ first NFL start and he’ll be doing it in the great state of Ohio. Over Fields’ last 10 home starts for Ohio State, he was 10-0 with a 72% completion rate, tossed 28 TDs, 4 INTs, for 2,332 yards.
The Browns defense has given up 60 points in two games, and it likely would have been more if Texans QB Tyrod Taylor had not gotten hurt last week.
The point is Fields’ first NFL start is coming in a place he’s comfortable, against a defense that might not be positioned to deliver many “Welcome to the NFL” moments on Sunday.
The pick = Chicago
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (+8)
Feels like a letdown game for Baltimore where they win, but don’t cover the spread.
I literally have no desire to write anything else about this game. I do not care for the Ravens.
The Lions seem like they are going to be facing a lot of spreads over a touchdown this season. Chances are they are going to find ways to backdoor cover several of them.
The Pick = Detroit
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
As someone with weak ankles and who has been ridiculed for this on several occasions, I feel Carson Wentz’s (physical and emotional) pain.
The Titans are coming off a great comeback win in Seattle and after their Week 1 effort vs. Arizona. They have a lot to make up for with the home crowd.
Still, the Colts won 34-17 when these two teams met in Tennessee last season. Jacob Eason seems like a big downgrade from Phil Rivers, but I am also not sold on the Titans being better than they were a year ago. I’ll take the points.
The Pick = Indianapolis
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Kansas City defense has given up nearly 1,000 yards in two games this season.
Read that again.
The Chargers are averaging under 20 points a game, but they are averaging over 400 yards of offense. This feels like a shootout and while the Chiefs are going to be motivated to avenge last week’s Ravens loss, I again like having the points.
The Pick = Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-3)
You know when you’re reading a book and you get to the end of the chapter. You know something big is gonna happen with that last line, like a character saying, “That’s when I realized, I wasn’t alone.” or “I’m the one who killed the Magistrate!”
And you’re trying so hard to finish the page you’re on and not look to that last line.
Well, the Patriots are in basically this same position with the BB-Brady Bowl next week, and I like them to keep their focus against the Saints.
The Pick = New England
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-3)
Normally, I would love the Falcons, just like I loved the Titans in Week 1 and the Eagles in Week 2.
And seeing how these went for me, let’s try to zag.
The Pick = New York
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
It’s still uncertain if Ben Roethlisberger will play in this game, which seems unfair to make me pick it.
But rules are rules.
I like the Steelers to bounce back from last week’s loss regardless of who is under center. And as an anti-Steelers fan, the idea of a Roethlisberger-Haskins controversy is fairly enticing.
The Pick = Pittsburgh
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Giving a touchdown on the road for a team that likely should be 1-1 seems like a bad idea. Hiring Urban Meyer to coach your NFL franchise also feels like it’s a bad idea too.
The Pick = Arizona
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-10.5)
Zach Wilson’s reward for throwing four picks being a trip to Denver and that altitude feels unfair. We’ve seen how the Mile High setting affected Tom Brady during his career. If that happened to the GOAT, Wilson might end up disintegrating on the field like Thanos.
The Broncos have been gifted one of the easiest early schedules, and they’ve handled their business so far. This line is high, but the home field helps secure the cover.
The Pick = Denver
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4)
I keep getting vibes from Week 3 in 2016 when Jacoby Brissett started for the Patriots in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The offensive gameplan the Patriots devised around Brissett caught the Texans completely off guard and New England won 27-0.
Brian Flores was on the Patriots coaching staff for that game. Just saying.
The Pick = Miami
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
Could the Rams performance against the Colts have been a trap game, but the Colts weren’t good enough to take advantage?
Could TB12 be too focused on next week with all the comments from his camp?
Could the injuries Tampa Bay has this week be too much to overcome?
Could I still be vindictively picking against Brady because he left New England?
The Pick = Los Angeles
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (+2)
Both teams coming off crushing losses and both teams are able to move the ball on offense.
Russell Wilson has had great success against Minnesota, but nothing lasts forever.
I like the home team.
The Pick = Minnesota
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Are we sure the Packers are fixed? They were losing at halftime, at home, to the Lions. They took care of business the rest of the game but there still seems like something is off with this team.
It could be the fact everyone knows their star quarterback is leaving after this season. I don’t know, I’m not a doctor.
The 49ers are now getting their first home game and are just plowing forward despite their RB injuries piling up.
The Pick = San Francisco
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)
A night game NFC East matchup where Dallas is favored?
The Pick = Philadelphia
Boom! There we go. We are on a gravy train with biscuits as Big Ern McCracken would say. Nothing is slowing this thing down unless it’s my relative inexperience picking this many games all at once finally catching up to me.
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